半导体、纳指相对强弱、VIX 和收益率一起决定这次下跌是否开始止住。
Market Logic Review / 市场逻辑复盘
Transparent Rule Engine / 透明规则引擎
Generated: 2026-07-03T00:05:27
市场状态由纳指是否跑赢、半导体是否领涨、VIX 是否压住、收益率是否可控共同决定。
行业领导力看半导体是否跑赢、AI 核心是否共振，以及内存/存储是否一起参与。
风险状态看 VIX、纳指周线回撤、收益率、美元和油价是否一起恶化。
Rule Details / 规则明细
| Rule ID | Group | Name | Threshold | Value | Score | Status | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STOP_001 | Stop-Falling Check / 止跌判断 | SOXX daily damage contained | SOXX DoD >= -0.50% | -4.69% | 0 / 15 | FAIL | Semiconductor selling pressure is not accelerating. |
| STOP_002 | Stop-Falling Check / 止跌判断 | SOXX weekly trend stabilizing | SOXX WoW >= -5.00% | -8.58% | 0 / 15 | FAIL | A smaller weekly drawdown means the decline is easier to repair. |
| STOP_003 | Stop-Falling Check / 止跌判断 | SOXX relative strength | SOXX - XLK DoD spread > 0 | -2.40% | 0 / 20 | FAIL | Semiconductors need to lead broad tech for AI risk appetite to improve. |
| STOP_004 | Stop-Falling Check / 止跌判断 | QQQ relative strength | QQQ - SPY DoD spread >= 0 | -1.22% | 0 / 15 | FAIL | Nasdaq needs to beat the broad market for growth leadership to confirm. |
| STOP_005 | Stop-Falling Check / 止跌判断 | Volatility contained | VIX < 20 and VIX DoD <= +5% | VIX 16.75 / DoD +0.96% | 15 / 15 | PASS | Lower fear makes stop-falling signals more believable. |
| STOP_006 | Stop-Falling Check / 止跌判断 | Macro pressure not worsening | 10Y yield DoD <= 0 | +1.94% | 0 / 10 | FAIL | Falling yields reduce pressure on expensive growth stocks. |
| STOP_007 | Stop-Falling Check / 止跌判断 | AI core basket not breaking | NVDA/AMD/AVGO/TSM average DoD >= -1.00% | -2.05% | 0 / 10 | FAIL | The AI core basket should stop falling together before the market can trust a rebound. |
| REGIME_001 | Market Regime / 市场状态 | QQQ daily trend | QQQ DoD > 0 | -1.42% | 0 / 15 | FAIL | A positive Nasdaq day supports risk appetite. |
| REGIME_002 | Market Regime / 市场状态 | QQQ weekly damage | QQQ WoW >= -3.00% | -0.21% | 15 / 15 | PASS | A weekly drawdown worse than -3% means the market is still repairing. |
| REGIME_003 | Market Regime / 市场状态 | Growth beats broad market | QQQ - SPY spread > 0 | -1.22% | 0 / 20 | FAIL | Growth leadership matters more than a single index bounce. |
| REGIME_004 | Market Regime / 市场状态 | Semis beat broad tech | SOXX - XLK spread > 0 | -2.40% | 0 / 15 | FAIL | Semiconductor leadership is the key risk-on engine for this page. |
| REGIME_005 | Market Regime / 市场状态 | Fear below stress line | VIX < 20 | 16.75 | 15 / 15 | PASS | Below 20 means volatility is elevated but not panic-like. |
| REGIME_006 | Market Regime / 市场状态 | Yield pressure manageable | 10Y yield < 4.60% | 4.46% | 10 / 10 | PASS | A 10Y yield under the pressure zone gives growth stocks more valuation room. |
| REGIME_007 | Market Regime / 市场状态 | Dollar not tightening sharply | DXY MoM < +1.00% | +1.55% | 0 / 10 | FAIL | A sharply stronger dollar usually tightens global risk conditions. |
| SECTOR_001 | Sector Leadership / 主导行业 | SOXX leads XLK | SOXX - XLK spread > 0 | -2.40% | 0 / 25 | FAIL | Semiconductors must outperform broad tech to confirm AI leadership. |
| SECTOR_002 | Sector Leadership / 主导行业 | SMH positive day | SMH DoD > 0 | -3.84% | 0 / 15 | FAIL | SMH is a clean AI infrastructure ETF proxy. |
| SECTOR_003 | Sector Leadership / 主导行业 | SOXX monthly trend intact | SOXX MoM > 0 | -5.53% | 0 / 15 | FAIL | A positive monthly semiconductor trend keeps the larger AI story alive. |
| SECTOR_004 | Sector Leadership / 主导行业 | AI core basket confirms | NVDA/AMD/AVGO/TSM average DoD > 0 | -2.05% | 0 / 20 | FAIL | Leadership is stronger when the core AI names rise together. |
| SECTOR_005 | Sector Leadership / 主导行业 | Memory basket participates | MU/SNDK average DoD > 0 | -7.73% | 0 / 10 | FAIL | Memory/storage participation broadens the semiconductor theme. |
| SECTOR_006 | Sector Leadership / 主导行业 | Mag 7 not dragging | Mag 7 average DoD >= -0.50% | -0.97% | 0 / 15 | FAIL | The index is more stable when mega-cap leaders are not broadly dragging. |
| RISK_001 | Risk Status / 风险状态 | VIX below 20 | VIX < 20 | 16.75 | 20 / 20 | PASS | Below 20 means fear is not yet in defensive-regime territory. |
| RISK_002 | Risk Status / 风险状态 | VIX not jumping | VIX DoD < +5.00% | +0.96% | 15 / 15 | PASS | A VIX jump makes rallies more fragile. |
| RISK_003 | Risk Status / 风险状态 | QQQ weekly drawdown contained | QQQ WoW > -5.00% | -0.21% | 15 / 15 | PASS | A deep Nasdaq weekly drawdown keeps risk elevated. |
| RISK_004 | Risk Status / 风险状态 | SOXX weekly drawdown contained | SOXX WoW > -7.00% | -8.58% | 0 / 15 | FAIL | A sharp semiconductor weekly loss weakens the AI trade. |
| RISK_005 | Risk Status / 风险状态 | 10Y not above stress level | 10Y yield < 4.75% | 4.46% | 15 / 15 | PASS | Very high yields pressure long-duration growth stocks. |
| RISK_006 | Risk Status / 风险状态 | Dollar not surging | DXY MoM < +1.50% | +1.55% | 0 / 10 | FAIL | A dollar surge usually tightens global risk appetite. |
| RISK_007 | Risk Status / 风险状态 | Oil not inflationary | Oil MoM <= 0 | -27.83% | 10 / 10 | PASS | Falling oil reduces near-term inflation pressure. |